Ajax Puts Page-View Math, Web Ad Sales in Peril
APRIL 02, 2007 -
Emerging
Internet publishing technology Ajax, which promises to make Web sites
more dynamic, is threatening to make one of the industry’s core
metrics—the page view—irrelevant. And as the Web gets more interactive,
the way online advertising—estimated to hit $20 billion this year—is
measured and sold is set to undergo a dramatic change.
To get out in front of this potential upheaval,
industry thought leaders are scrambling. Nielsen//NetRatings is
planning to publish a new “total time spent” metric starting with its
June report, which will place less emphasis on page views (The Nielsen
Co. is Mediaweek’s parent company). And the Interactive Advertising
Bureau plans to release an official report in the next few weeks that
will provide topline guidance on the impact of Ajax.
The core issue at hand is that basic Web site
navigation is changing. When sites employ Ajax (Asynchronous JavaScript
and XML, an increasingly popular programming technique that speeds up
content delivery to a Web page), they can refresh portions of or all of
a page’s content without requiring users to click to another Web page.
For example, Yahoo and MSN have been testing Ajax in
their e-mail products, which automatically update their inboxes
regardless of whether users are active on that page. Similarly,
CNNMoney.com recently launched a new product that automatically feeds
up-to-date stock prices to its pages, whether its users have taken
action or not.
In both cases, while content changes on those sites,
new page views are not recorded. And since page views are often equated
with ad impressions—fairly or not—this issue promises to come to a head
as sites use more Web 2.0 applications.
All this change is theoretically great for users, but
risky for sites. Vivek Shah, president of digital publishing, Time Inc.
Business and Finance Network, said that he knew CNNMoney.com’s page
views would take a hit, but felt that in the short term, improving the
site was more important than protecting metrics, and maybe dollars. “If
you are a publisher that is really focused on user experience, [Ajax]
does make sense,” said Julian Zilberbrand, associate director, digital
operations, MediaVest. “But it potentially severely limits the ad
opportunities you have.”
Whether Ajax is limiting or not, fewer page views make
it tougher to sell a site’s potency. “The page view has been a health
indicator,” said Shah, who’s in favor of Nielsen’s time-spent push.
“But it’s becoming obsolete.”
Not overnight. For example, the news last year that
MySpace had topped Yahoo in page views got press despite Yahoo’s
protests that page views had dropped specifically because of its use of
Ajax. While most Web insiders get Yahoo’s argument, outsiders—like,
say, Wall Street—may not. “The uninformed are probably saying…the sky
is falling,” said Adrian D’Souza, vp, ad operations, CNET Networks.
So are some sites. Eric Picard, director of
advertising and emerging media planning at Microsoft, said that a year
or so ago he “started hearing nightmare stories about sites
disappearing completely off comScore [reports].” He pushed for an
emergency IAB task force. “This isn’t something we can sit by and
watch.”
And while only a handful of major sites are using
Ajax, it’s the topic of conversation among publishers, according to
Randall Rothenberg, CEO of the IAB. “There has not been a day that’s
gone by without the question—‘What is the state of metrics [in light of
Ajax]?’”
Rothenberg said that adopting technologies like Ajax
is essential to the Web’s development, but even some of the most
innovative players are being cautious. “We had the capability to come
out with something [using Ajax] last year and we haven’t,” said CNET’s
D’Souza. “We are taking a measured approach.” That’s probably wise,
since no one’s quite sure what the long-term solution will be. “We’re
in a transition period,” said Scott Ross, product manager for
Nielsen//NetRatings’ NetView service. “We also don’t know how users
will behave in an Ajax environment.”
Ross said that while Nielsen is initially focusing on
time spent, much more discussion is needed given the complex issues
Ajax raises. For example, most online ads rotate only when users take
an action—usually by clicking to a new page. But Ajax may allow users
to take dozens of actions on one page in a very short period of time.
“If there are too many user actions, does that represent a true ad
opportunity?” asks Ross. Conversely, if Ajax ends up making Web surfing
more efficient, then is time spent a true indicator of site health?
As to whether Nielsen or comScore should lead the
charge to iron out Ajax standards, “There is already a pre-existing
concern about third-party measurement [accuracy],” said Rothenberg.
“It’s a justifiable concern.”
Similarly, agency execs are pondering just how much Ajax will impact online buying.
“It’s
probably a much larger area of concern to sites than to marketers,”
said Jordan Bitterman, vp, media director, Digitas. While Bitterman
says impressions will always be the core currency for online media,
MediaVest’s Zilberbrand said “it’s absolutely feasible” that some new
metric may take its place.
Some buyers say that regardless of how the Web is
sold, all that matters is that their clients’ ads are seen. “Everyone
in our industry is very focused on scale and impressions,” said Alan
Schanzer, managing partner, MEC Interaction. “Until we have real-time
measurement of engagement for brand ads, I want to know that my target
audience is spending time on a page that displays my ad.”
Emerging
Internet publishing technology Ajax, which promises to make Web sites
more dynamic, is threatening to make one of the industry’s core
metrics—the page view—irrelevant. And as the Web gets more interactive,
the way online advertising—estimated to hit $20 billion this year—is
measured and sold is set to undergo a dramatic change.
To get out in front of this potential upheaval,
industry thought leaders are scrambling. Nielsen//NetRatings is
planning to publish a new “total time spent” metric starting with its
June report, which will place less emphasis on page views (The Nielsen
Co. is Mediaweek’s parent company). And the Interactive Advertising
Bureau plans to release an official report in the next few weeks that
will provide topline guidance on the impact of Ajax.
The core issue at hand is that basic Web site
navigation is changing. When sites employ Ajax (Asynchronous JavaScript
and XML, an increasingly popular programming technique that speeds up
content delivery to a Web page), they can refresh portions of or all of
a page’s content without requiring users to click to another Web page.
For example, Yahoo and MSN have been testing Ajax in
their e-mail products, which automatically update their inboxes
regardless of whether users are active on that page. Similarly,
CNNMoney.com recently launched a new product that automatically feeds
up-to-date stock prices to its pages, whether its users have taken
action or not.
In both cases, while content changes on those sites,
new page views are not recorded. And since page views are often equated
with ad impressions—fairly or not—this issue promises to come to a head
as sites use more Web 2.0 applications.
All this change is theoretically great for users, but
risky for sites. Vivek Shah, president of digital publishing, Time Inc.
Business and Finance Network, said that he knew CNNMoney.com’s page
views would take a hit, but felt that in the short term, improving the
site was more important than protecting metrics, and maybe dollars. “If
you are a publisher that is really focused on user experience, [Ajax]
does make sense,” said Julian Zilberbrand, associate director, digital
operations, MediaVest. “But it potentially severely limits the ad
opportunities you have.”
Whether Ajax is limiting or not, fewer page views make
it tougher to sell a site’s potency. “The page view has been a health
indicator,” said Shah, who’s in favor of Nielsen’s time-spent push.
“But it’s becoming obsolete.”
Not overnight. For example, the news last year that
MySpace had topped Yahoo in page views got press despite Yahoo’s
protests that page views had dropped specifically because of its use of
Ajax. While most Web insiders get Yahoo’s argument, outsiders—like,
say, Wall Street—may not. “The uninformed are probably saying…the sky
is falling,” said Adrian D’Souza, vp, ad operations, CNET Networks.
So are some sites. Eric Picard, director of
advertising and emerging media planning at Microsoft, said that a year
or so ago he “started hearing nightmare stories about sites
disappearing completely off comScore [reports].” He pushed for an
emergency IAB task force. “This isn’t something we can sit by and
watch.”
And while only a handful of major sites are using
Ajax, it’s the topic of conversation among publishers, according to
Randall Rothenberg, CEO of the IAB. “There has not been a day that’s
gone by without the question—‘What is the state of metrics [in light of
Ajax]?’”
Rothenberg said that adopting technologies like Ajax
is essential to the Web’s development, but even some of the most
innovative players are being cautious. “We had the capability to come
out with something [using Ajax] last year and we haven’t,” said CNET’s
D’Souza. “We are taking a measured approach.” That’s probably wise,
since no one’s quite sure what the long-term solution will be. “We’re
in a transition period,” said Scott Ross, product manager for
Nielsen//NetRatings’ NetView service. “We also don’t know how users
will behave in an Ajax environment.”
Ross said that while Nielsen is initially focusing on
time spent, much more discussion is needed given the complex issues
Ajax raises. For example, most online ads rotate only when users take
an action—usually by clicking to a new page. But Ajax may allow users
to take dozens of actions on one page in a very short period of time.
“If there are too many user actions, does that represent a true ad
opportunity?” asks Ross. Conversely, if Ajax ends up making Web surfing
more efficient, then is time spent a true indicator of site health?
As to whether Nielsen or comScore should lead the
charge to iron out Ajax standards, “There is already a pre-existing
concern about third-party measurement [accuracy],” said Rothenberg.
“It’s a justifiable concern.”
Similarly, agency execs are pondering just how much Ajax will impact online buying.
“It’s
probably a much larger area of concern to sites than to marketers,”
said Jordan Bitterman, vp, media director, Digitas. While Bitterman
says impressions will always be the core currency for online media,
MediaVest’s Zilberbrand said “it’s absolutely feasible” that some new
metric may take its place.
Some buyers say that regardless of how the Web is
sold, all that matters is that their clients’ ads are seen. “Everyone
in our industry is very focused on scale and impressions,” said Alan
Schanzer, managing partner, MEC Interaction. “Until we have real-time
measurement of engagement for brand ads, I want to know that my target
audience is spending time on a page that displays my ad.”
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